The AI Bubble Index - Company Profiles
December 2025
Who Breaks First When 132x Unwinds?
This report applies the DecisionDNA Metabolic Profiling instrument to the four companies at the centre of AI infrastructure capital flows.
The Core Finding: Two are CRITICAL. One is ELEVATED. One is STABLE but systemically coupled to the others.
Inside the Profiles:
- Nvidia: STABLE on its own balance sheet, but $106B in capital coupling commitments tie its realised revenue to counterparties now under stress.
- Oracle: CRITICAL. CDS at 139 bps (highest since 2009), $124B debt, negative $10B quarterly FCF. March 2026 refinancing cliff.
- CoreWeave: CRITICAL. ~$48B total obligations against ~$5B revenue. 42% implied 5-year default probability.
- OpenAI: ELEVATED. $207B funding gap by 2030. SoftBank conversion clause expires December 31, 2025.